Mixed Martial Arts Forum banner

Why I am NOT putting $ on Machida:

3K views 34 replies 24 participants last post by  steveo412 
#1 ·
I took a look at the odds this morning, and right now, it's as follows:

- 500 Machida, +300 Rua.

PRIDE fanboys have calmed down, and are more realistic about their favorite fighters inside the octagon.

And newer MMA fans have ADD, and unless you have a one syllable name to chant ["BROCK BROCK BROCK"], they won't be throwing any money down on the fight.

This leaves the more educated fan, who understands that, in all reality, Machida has a great chance to win.

This means that the line is going to stay stagnant. It isn't going to move much, if at all.

My hesitancy isn't based on Machida's ability to win, but instead, on his ability to RETAIN. It's often said that you're not a champion until you retain the belt, and I believe that is truth.

A recent viewing of the LHW belt shows how much in turmoil that gold strap is.

Rampage to Griffin to Rashad to Machida, all with no retentions of the belt. [Note: Rampage took the belt from Chuck, but the following fight v. Hendo was a title unification bout... I'm not going to count that as a retention, but more of a "legitimacy" fight.]

The HW division has been much of the same, if you use my explanation above re: title unification, w/ Couture having the only defense of the belt. Before that, you have to go to TIMMY.

Machida has the potential to be great. But, that title often goes to whomever is hungrier, which is often the challenger.

Many people have gotten the title, few retain it, and even fewer retain it for an extended period of time.

I hope Machida takes it, but I'll be sitting on the sidelines until he proves to me I'm right. After this, I may be willing to risk the -500... but not right now.
 
See less See more
#2 ·
I think your totally corect, however Lyoto isnt one to underestimate nor lose focus in this situation, his life dream has been to become the champ.....

I believe he will be focused and certainly disciplined enough to enact the same things that have worked for him up till this point, he just now has an opponent that will "give" him more of what Lyoto wants....an attacking fighter that is easy to counter.....:thumbsup:

EDIT: For the record vBookie lines never change, although i know your not talking about them....
 
#24 ·
EDIT: For the record vBookie lines never change, although i know your not talking about them....
Thats not completely true as when Cote fought Almedia the original line was him being a 2 to 1 favorite to win, when the odds on betting sites flipped and Cote became a 3 to 1 underdog MMA Forum actually followed suite, I know because I was pissed that I went all in when he was the favorite and didn't get the revised odds.
 
#3 ·
I think you'd be pretty safe to bet on Machida tbh. Of all the LHW champs we've seen in the past couple of years he's looked the most impressive and the most likely to retain. He's also fighting a guy in Shogun, who basically has a less refined version of Machida's own style; relying on counter striking and striking from strange angles, just with abit more crazyness and aggression, which I think will be his downfall.

Shogun's hard to time and strikes from strange angles, but so does Machida, and Machida avoids strikes far better than Shogun does. I think it'll be a matter of Lyoto feeling Shogun out early and then as soon as he's worked out Rua's timing it'll be all over. Machida via TKO/KO in the 2nd.
 
#5 ·
I think you're overlooking one thing when talking about Lyoto's ability to retain the belt. As mentioned, his dream has always been to be champion, this dream will fuel his desire to defend it. Also, Machida has stated that he isn't going into this fight believing he needs to defend the belt, but win it again.

He is putting himself into a place mentally where he is going into a title bout, not as the champion, but as one of two challengers. Lyoto has a strong will and a strong mind, so I believe this envisioning will allow him to be motivated.

Though I want Shogun to win with all of my heart, my brain tells me that Machida wins this 8 out of 10 times.
 
#9 ·
i dont think Machida will be making any of those first time champ mistakes. He's just not the type. As for the issue of retention... i think the bigger risk is Lyoto reverting to his old form and evading for a win. While i enjoy watching that style of elite striking many do not. The forcast calls for boos. But whether he wins with counter strikes or with evasion... i think he wins it either way.

i think the odds are spot on too. +300 is really a punchers/subs chance which is what i give my man Shogun.
 
#13 ·
haha, I've learned my lesson making ridiculous bets when I'm drunk, at the time it seems like a really good idea and I always think I'm right after a few, but sadly it never seems to workout, but best of luck to ya!

I think Machida easily wins this because of his mindset alone. He's taking this fight very personally like he's trying to prove he is the champion all over again. I would even bet on him with -500 odds personally. Alot of people don't believe in him quite yet, because he doesn't have enough fights but I don't see anyone beating him for years.
 
#17 ·
Yeah I didn't quite understand the explanation behind that. It was a "unification" fight and hence not a title defence? If Rampage lost, then Hendo would have been the champ, hence title defense.
 
#22 ·
I don't think anyone who knows what Shogun was like in 2006 would write him off because of his injuries. We are kind of worried if his cardio is totally back, but even having great cardio doesn't help against the Dragon. Just ask Tito Ortiz.

I think Shogun's a tough match for Machida because of his intensity. Though his style throws all caution into the wind, which isn't exactly good against Machida. There are things that you can't get away with against Lyoto like you could with other fighters. Look at the lazy jab Rashad threw at him near the end of round 1. Most other fighters would have simply avoided it but Lyoto punished him with a 3 punch combo.

Shogun, in the Liddell fight, shown us that he can still be intense but he can be patient too, which will pay off against Machida.
 
#30 ·
Q: Why I am NOT putting $ on Machida

A: Because im a nincompoop.
 
#31 ·
Here in the Uk Machida is 1/4 to win.

I normally have an accumulator which helps with the odds. For 104 I'm having Machida, Stevenson, Johnson, Okami and Bader, which gives me odds of 3/1. I will put £100 on this which will hopefully win me back £300 plus my £100 stake. One or more may lose, but I'm willing to take the chance.
 
#33 ·
My book's UFC 104 odds (click there) have Machida at -450 last I checked...at least a bit better value than some of the books.

I understand the fear bout picking him because of the LHW belt changing hands so many times but I think Machida is different.

Some people may say "But Evans was undefeated and look what happened to him."

But to those people I say...

1) Whom had Evans beaten? Washed up Liddell, flawed Forrest Griffin and Bisping in a questionable decision

2) Had Evans ever lost a round in the UFC? Of course.

Machida, meanwhile, has beaten Evans/T. Silva/Tito/Rich Franklin/even fat B.J. Penn, haha. He's also never lost a round in the UFC.

I think an aggressive fighter like Shogun will fall right into Machida's trap -- overextend himself and get caught with a counter strike.

I don't just think Machida will win; I think he'll become the first guy to knock out Shogun.

(I don't count Shogun's TKO loss to Mark Coleman -- that was a broken arm)
 
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top