Just going from a historical standpoint here...
Fedor gets eliminated early due to an elbow TKO.
Wanderlei replaces him and beats Brock Lesnar by knees.
Wanderlei is then KO'd by Henderson, who is then KO'd by Shogun.
Machida beats Thiago Silva by KO (I'm going to say, maybe late round 1?), Shogun then beats Machida in a close decision.
JDS and Silva get scheduled to fight but are brazillian training partners, they refuse and JDS is booted from the tournament. Silva then KO's a redhaired midget in an alley somewhere and immediately advances to the finals.
Mousasi then procedes to KO Shogun and submit Silva, both while laying on his backside to win the tournament.
TOURNAMENT WINNER: Mousasi.