My thoughts are this,
Nick wont cut so easy this fight.
He also wont be underestimating Noons, I think part of KJ's success was Nick came in unprepared for a real test, win or lose there wont be any wiggle room for the defeated fighter.
Nick is about as hard to KO as they come, I dont see any way Noons can finish this, he might be able to ride out a decision win but thats the only way I see him winning.
I see Nick keeping that fast pace, this is a five round fight and I see him drowning KJ in the later rounds.
This is one of those fights that the number of rounds could influence the winner IMO a 3 round fight is beneficial for KJ and his stand up and increases his chances at a win especially with Nicks ego, but in a 5 round fight Nick has time to set him up and take him down.
Nick should and could win this fight very easily but if he lets himself get bated into a boxing match he could very well get outpointed and lose a decision.
Bottom line I dont see anyway KJ can take this fight from Diaz, its Nicks fight to win or lose.