I wouldn't say Thiago is on the weaker side of the scale of LHW elites by a long shot, he has lost to Machida and Rashad and there is no shame in that especially because he was carrying a back problem for the latter and couldn't train properly.
Jones beat who was in front of him. I would say only Miller(LW) deserves a title shot more in the UFC right now especially with his record.
I mean Jones hasn't had to fight a Rampage or a Machida yet but I believe that the win of Bader was pushing him to that level of challenge next. Just so happens that everybody is either tied up or injured who could be ranked higher than Jones in the LHW division.
Rampage turned the opportunity down and that's a smart move on his part as trying to make weight and have a good training camp bringing him in at 100% in time for a fight he is close to anyway seems like an unnecessary risk.