Jones' biggest advantages standing up have been his size and range and his unpredictability. None of this stuff really makes a difference once the difference in skill gets as large as it is between him and Shogun. It would be the same against T.Silva, Rampage or Machida.
Those jumping knees and sloppy strikes may not get him into trouble against mediocre fighters but the truth is Shogun will make him look shockingly average if he doesn't get the takedown and can't prove that he has a top game fit for the best guys. For a start those long skinny legs will get buckled with leg kicks, and Shogun's berserker style will be too much for him full stop on the feet. On the ground we're going to see someone with legit BJJ go to work, and if you ask me Shogun is not staying down for long, and certainly wont be dominated.
Everyone knows Bones has to get takedowns, but so far he has dominated fighters on the ground who are bad off their back.
He is a very athletic guy with a good wrestling base and he's unorthodox but that only wins fights against fighters who don't have the actual fighting ability to overcome athleticism. It's the same like when Brock man handled Herring who is actually a mid tier guy, but as soon as Brock stepped up to the big boys he got exposed. Before then it was all so convincing.
Jones' only hope is to lay on Shogun for long enough to get a decision, otherwise he's gona be getting his ass kicked... KOd or subbed.
I'm actually envisioning Jones taking him down, getting sweeped and then pounded out in no time. I think Shogun is going to take this boys soul for a while, not gona be good for such a young guy to get smashed off his hype train in devastating fashion.