Jones was very tired by the end of the 1st against Shogun, it then took him until halfway through the 3rd to finish the fight. He got knackered in less then 3 rounds, taking hardly any damage, trying to finish a fighter even more tired than he was.
Defeating Rua via TKO in the 3rd is impressive on paper, however watching the fight, the fact he didn't finish it in the 1st is very unimpressive. Doesn't matter if it is Shogun, he had a fighter hurt and losing energy fast early in the first round, and then he himself gassed without even taking damage and took another 2 rounds to get it done.
So yes the key to Jones is to take it to later rounds WITHOUT taking much damage, Shogun defended well on the ground which is what tired Jon, but he didn't play it smart on the feet and make Jon chase him and get frustrated. Any of the Top LHW's including Shogun can do that to Jones on the feet, he is not a technical striker, but I'm not sure that any of them can neutralise Jon's ground game better than Rua did.
Patience + Cardio + emphasis on GnP defense = by 3rd or 4th, Jon's size and explosiveness is less of a factor, and his raw skillset can be taken advantage of. Griffin, Machida, Evans, Rua, Rampage, can all exectue this gameplan and finish Jones in the later rounds, being aggressive in the early rounds is just making the fight much harder than it needs to be.