I think the winner of this one depends on a couple factors.
Does Fedor add new blood to his training camp/have his camp elseware? I think this is the biggest aspect. While Fedor has done some amazing things with his own secluded camp. The sport is starting to pass him by. And while I think he's still got a lot left in the tank, and a lot more potential to be activated, staying reclusive won't help him do that.
Also, will Henderson be able to apply his counter wrestling the way he did against Feijao (only much stronger), He can definitely take this one. I think his stand up is more powerful and Fedor's notorious low guard may put him in a precarious position. I think Fedor's punching may be more accurate, but Henderson is more than durable enough to take a pounding and counter with his own punches.
I see this one going the distance. If Fedor adds new dimensions to his training he takes this one IMO. But if he continues to do what he's been doing up until now, he'll get out pointed and eventually lose a UD.
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I went out the way that I fight. I went out on my shield. Thatís it. Done. --Chuck Liddell
My goal is to end my opponent --Carlos Condit