Okami's odds of beating Silva should not be the major factor in determining whether he gets a title shot or not. The major factor should be whether or not he has earned a title shot. And I'd say has.
Once he's in the cage, he may do well or he may get blasted inside of a minute, but either way he's earned the right to be in that cage.
That's why I opposed an immediate rematch for Sonnen and why I hate rematches like that in any sport. Sonnen may have had a good chance of beating Silva, but he did nothing to earn another title shot.