I tend to agree with the first part. This is a guy who knows he's in a hole, and knows he has a tough climb ahead of him if he ever wants to get out of it.
Not so sure about the second part. I favor Shogun, but I think Vera has a bigger chance than you give him credit for. Vera seems to be suffering from hype backlash. He was never as good as the UFC made him out to be, but he's not as bad as a lot of the fans seem to think he is either.
It's going to be interesting to see how Vera does, but the thing is he's been out for almost a year now, coming off 1 win and 3 losses, with his win being a decision of Eliot Marshal, he's not in an impressive area at all, that combined with his general skill level I see him getting steamrolled like a cartoon character.
I've seen stranger things of course, he might come out and do well, I just don't see it given where he is at in his career and his general skill level.
Hopefully I am wrong, as I'd like to see Vera thrown in the mix of top contenders and add a little more verity and spice to the division.