I think Machida will take the belt this time around. He's been in there once before with him, he won a round and will know how to better deal with JJ's double leg take downs. He'll also play it a LOT more careful and mainly just rely on countering.
He got flown down the floor when his back was against the cage, i don't think you can quite prepare youself properly for this, no matter who you are.
I see Jones adjusting and taking the rematch.