I think Machida will take the belt this time around. He's been in there once before with him, he won a round and will know how to better deal with JJ's double leg take downs. He'll also play it a LOT more careful and mainly just rely on countering.
I think the fight will go much like round 1 did. Machida took that round, and then got caught and ended up in that vintage choke Jones gets a lot. I don't think that will happen again.
Machida I still feel has the only style to beat Jones and he proved it in the first round. He's comfortable on the outside and can fight Jones from the outside. I don't take credit away from Jones for finishing the first fight, but I se an upset in the air. This is going to be leonard herns, bruce lee Jabbar, Spinks Holmes.