I honestly think Machida has the best chance at beating Jones...even though he lost very decisively last time.
The way he ran through Ryan Bader was just so impressive...I know many people here seem to think Bader is over-hyper and over-rated...I disagree. He is a legit prospect with wins over Lil Nog and Rampage. His only losses are to current/former champions. What Machida did to Bader was just something else. It was so obvious as the fight went on that Bader was getting more and more frustrated and couldn't figure out what in the hell to do with Machida. Lyoto is clearly on another level man. He made Darth Bader look like an absolute chump.
Lyoto's first round against Jones was pretty impressive. If he can avoid Jones' takedown, keep the distance and use his superb movement and timing he has a chance.
I am once again on board the Lyoto wagon