Personally I think your fight breakdown is pretty bad. What are the odds Jones KO's Anderson when Anderson has never been KO'd and Jones hasn't really shown us KO power? He has shown the ability to get a TKO by a series of strikes but that isn't really the same as KO power.
You also fail to mention any wrestling, which would be one clear advantage Jones has and probably Anderson weakest area. I'm sure Jones would attempt throws and take downs pretty often if they ever fought.
Well, I wasn't aiming for a complex fight breakdown initially so I think it's wrong to complain about that.
Having said that, the reason I say KO is that I think a -lucky- punch when Andersons guard is relaxed could be an exploitation that Jones would probably figure out (as is the case with almost EVERY fight). Just because Jones hasn't shown KO power doesn't mean he doesn't have it so it's your opinion is as speculative as mine.
On the topic of ground fight they both have long slender limbs so technique and experience will be a key factor here which I would give to Anderson. BUT, Jones can pull amazing escapes like the arm-bar with Vitor. Anderson's ground control is excellent, one of the best, he waits for an opportunity and can exploit it. If Jones makes 1 mistake on the ground then Silva will win. Otherwise it's pretty even.
This is what makes this fight extremely interesting, the match up is great.