Story is widely overrated.
Maia fought for the title. He has fought top 5 MWs. Story is an average 170.
Not saying Maia will cruise here. But Story isn't a finisher at all. Maia may out-strike him in a terrible striking contest. Or if Story wants to clinch he can get it to the ground. If on the ground I think he taps Story fairly easy.
I have a feeling Maia fights smart in Brazil. You don't move down a weight if you aren't re-adjusting your game.
Maia 1st round sub of some sort. Story has never faced a real good BJJ artist.