Originally Posted by TheOldAssassin
Five issues stand out here:
1. Has Rashad gotten over The Jones Thing - and for that matter, will he ever do so? (See Jens Pulver after BJ beat him, Ken Shamrock after Tito beat him, etc.).
2. Lil Nog is coming off a win, while Rashad is not only coming off a loss, but a potentially soul-stealing loss (see #1 above). Advantage Lil Nog - and BTW, only once in his entire pro MMA career has Rashad fought an opponent who was coming off a loss (when he fought Tito for the first time at UFC 73, as Tito had lost to Chuck at UFC 66 in his immediately prior fight). Betcha didn't know that!
3. Lil Nog outperformed Rashad against Tito, in consecutive fights for Tito (it's not as if the two fights were three years apart or anything like that) - and not just because he finished Tito faster: Did Lil Nog damn near get submitted by Tito?
4. Remember that when Shogun got injured, Dana White offered Rashad a fight vs. Lil Nog - and Rashad turned it down. Does this give Lil Nog "bulletin-board material" as they say in the NFL? I say it does.
5. Lil Nog has the advantage in camps. Don't take my word for that - ask Bigfoot, who left the Lackzilians (who are a combined 8-9 in the UFC, and not counting one specific fighter - Michael Johnson - they're 4-8) to join Team Nogueira, and commented that he was happy to be in a "real camp" again when he did! And remember that Bigfoot had been training with Rashad. What kind of inside info will he be able to pass on to Lil Nog?
Therefore, here is my concise prediction for this fight:
For the first two rounds, it will essentially be a carbon copy (showing my age, I know) of Rashad's fight vs. Thiago Silva at UFC 108; but then, in the third round, instead of merely rocking Rashad as Thiago did, Lil Nog will KO him.
Thus Lil Nog by KO, Round 3.
Not being funny, but it sounds like you've sort of convinced yourself that Lil Nog has the advantage in this fight.
1 - As my man said above me, Rashad lost in far more brutal fashion to Machida. He not only lost to Machida but he also got finished soundly in the 2nd round. Oh, and he lost his UFC LHW title too. What happened after that? He came back to convincingly beat 4 top fighters.
2.Rashad, imo, won the first round vs Jones, but after those elbows in the 2nd round, he became gunshy. He just became reliant on trying to catch Jones with something big. Still, he wouldn't get finished and I believe a rematch would be even more competitive against Jones if Rashad remembered he was an explosive wrestler who can mix it up and not Sugar Ray Leonard. Definitely
3. The biggest LOL. You are really going to use that logic? Man, a majority of your posts are pretty well thought out, but simply suggesting that Lil Nog is going to beat Rashad all because he finished Tito quicker is the kind of post I would expect from John28485304534534 or whatever his screentag is.
Imo, Rashad's destruction of Tito was more entertaining and impressive because he was coming off a pretty big layoff and was fighting a confident and incredibly game Ortiz who came off a quick stoppage against Ryan Bader - who beat up Lil Nog for three rounds. Hey, that's just what Phil Davis did too! And who did Rashad fight before Jones? Philly D. Who he made look like an amateur for 5 rounds. MMA math, sucks, I know.
4. So Rashad specifically wanted to cash in on an ACTUAL title opportunity. I know nothing about the NFL, but I do know that a majority of fighters want to fight for the belt instead of a bloke who's only just within the top 10 bracket.
5. Doesn't matter how much info Bigfoot gives Lil Nog. Lil Nog's the one who's going to have to go in there and defend agains the speed, takedown, ground and pound of Rashad Evans. I think Rashad can stand with him too, actually. Blackhouse is a successful camp, I admit. But a successful camp doesn't make a fighter. Look at Leonard Garcia.
My prediction? Rashad throws Lil Nog around the octagon for 3 rounds in a clear cut decision. We may even get a 10-8 round in there if Rashad's really feeling hungry.