You could be right, but let's not forget that Nog had enough in him to drop Mir. It wasn't his chin that failed him that fight. It should be an interesting fight IMO.
Even though Nogueira is shot, his downgraded chin is still much better than Mir's. Mir has always had a terrible chin.
I think this is a fantastic fight. I believe Werdum has what it takes to challenge the JDS/Cain/Cormiers of the division, no doubt he'll put a whooping on Nogueira.