You could be right, but let's not forget that Nog had enough in him to drop Mir. It wasn't his chin that failed him that fight. It should be an interesting fight IMO.
Well many also believe that Werdum would beat Mir in a grappling match, so he could sub him too, Werdum is also a better striker with a better chin. Can't see Big Nog winning this one at all.
Werdum should get a title shot after he wins.