"it is measured by how likely and how often you are able to do that one thing"
Ok. Lets take "winning" as that one "thing".
By this logic (correct me if I am wrong) any underdog fighter. Or any fighter who wins at a less % than the opponent he is fighting....if he were to beat that guy who is "more likely...often wins" that means he is lucky?
I mean going by your words that would be the case. If a 7-7 fighter beats a 12-2 fighter it is automatically luck because he wins less often.
You knew what I meant and you are just arguing semantics here. Everyone is familiar with the term "styles makes fights" in this sport and that's because it's true.
The luck I was referring to in this sport is measured by how likely Fighter A is to pull off that one method of victory in said fight.
In a purely hypothetical situation, let's say Dan Henderson fought GSP (lets say they were in the same weight class) and Hendo comes out and KO's GSP in the first round like Serra did. I wouldn't consider that a lucky shot like Serras for a number of reasons I said in my last post. Dan being notorious for his brutal over hand right, Serra having no KO's on his record etc.
As for your Mir/Nog scenario, I think that was a case of one fighter purely being better on that one night. Both of those guys are extremely high level submission artists and on that night, Mir managed to seize on the submission opportunity and pulled it off. So I wouldn't class it as lucky, simply because of how good Mir is with submissions. Now if Dave Herman the other week came out and submitted Nog, I'd label it as lucky.
I preserve luck in this sport for only the most extreme situations, such as - Serra/GSP, Chonan/Anderson Silva, Paulo Thiago/Koscheck etc etc.