Originally Posted by GrappleRetarded
You knew what I meant and you are just arguing semantics here. Everyone is familiar with the term "styles makes fights" in this sport and that's because it's true.
The luck I was referring to in this sport is measured by how likely Fighter A is to pull off that one method of victory in said fight.
In a purely hypothetical situation, let's say Dan Henderson fought GSP (lets say they were in the same weight class) and Hendo comes out and KO's GSP in the first round like Serra did. I wouldn't consider that a lucky shot like Serras for a number of reasons I said in my last post. Dan being notorious for his brutal over hand right, Serra having no KO's on his record etc.
As for your Mir/Nog scenario, I think that was a case of one fighter purely being better on that one night. Both of those guys are extremely high level submission artists and on that night, Mir managed to seize on the submission opportunity and pulled it off. So I wouldn't class it as lucky, simply because of how good Mir is with submissions. Now if Dave Herman the other week came out and submitted Nog, I'd label it as lucky.
I preserve luck in this sport for only the most extreme situations, such as - Serra/GSP, Chonan/Anderson Silva, Paulo Thiago/Koscheck etc etc.
If we are sitting here trying to define luck...then we should be able to apply it to everything. Using your words you said "it is measured by how likely and how often you are able to do that one thing". You used that notion to back your case. Why can't I use it to back mine? If what you said is what you meant, then a fighter with a smaller % of victory beating a fighter with a higher % (or probability) of victory...is luck...or lucky.
Bottom line is it is not. You know this and I know this. It isn't because 2 pro fighters are in there with tons of practice behind them. Some fighters have off nights. Some have good nights.
GSP may have had an off night. Matt Serra may be lucky to have caught GSP on his "off night" (again fighters aren't machines)...but taht actual punch and result wasn't luck.
With this logic...If GSP finishes anyone in the next 5 years, he will have been lucky. Because these days it is not probable. If he finished Condit it would be LUCK because Condit rarely gets finishes and GSP rarely finishes. Would this example be correct? Or do we want to cherry pick scenarios some more?
And I agree with your last point. I never said there was no ounce of luck in this. I said Luck in no way out-weighs skill in terms of a fighter KOing another. May be luck in the other defense and timing...but it was skill and practice to do it. Luck is few and far between in this sport.
I wouldn't agree with your Paulo Thiago example. Kos is far from an expert striker. Paulo throws heavy hands. Wasn't luck. It was Kos leaving himself wide open and not reacting. What if Paulo landed a jab on Kos? Is that luck? What does the power he have behind something have to do with luck? He threw the punch hard. It landed. It KO'd him.
Did he not mean to throw that punch hard or something??