To say however, because I intended, there was no luck involved, is as preposterous as saying Serra winning was entirely lucky.
I can do and have trained to do a pretty good tornado kick. If I fight Anderson Silva and honestly think to myself, I'm going to try a tornado kick and knock him out, and then, I actually do, there's no better word choice to describe what happened but as 'lucky'.
There in lies the difference, these are all pros that get paid to fight MMA. Matt Serra was a capable fighter. A vet. GSP was still fairly young, had all the confidence at the time...and was caught by a guy who trained MMA for years. Who works with a hell of a boxing coach daily...
It also would matter exactly how effective or or good your kick was. Is it world class? I would be surprised if Maia beat Anderson in and MMA fight even by sub. But in a straight BJJ contest I would expect him to win by a wide margin.
If Damien Maia intended on subbing Anderson (which he was) in an MMA fight...and pulled it off...I wouldn't call that luck. He is a BJJ Ace and trained to do that. As much of an MMA upset it would of been...it wouldn't of been luck.
If you had a world class kick...like Maia's world class BJJ. And happened to catch Anderson standing...I wouldn't be surprised. Again, we are talking pro fighters...and yourself.
Serra didn't have world class striking. But he was more experienced. He wasn't as young and naive. He had nothing to lose. It isn't out of the question that he was simply better that night and was more game for the fight.