How is age and factors such as GSP's confidence luck? It is purely aspects of the fight. That is what happens to over-confident young fighters. All fighters have a wake up moment. How is that luck? I'm not following this at all.
By your own definition its something outside of your control or will. In Serra's context he was lucky to fight GSP at a time in his career where he got a little cocky where he thought he didnt need to focus as much.
And the fact of what would happen out of 10 times doesn't hold any weight. No one in the sport does that. It is all based on 1 night. Some guys bring it some guys don't. That is why I say they AREN'T MACHINES. It isn't a slot machine, it isn't how many times it hits out of 10 or 100.
I know no one does that, the point is how its perceived (since this is largely an argument about semantics). But, guess what happens when people think a guy got a lucky shot in? Usually a rematch happens. Right now GSP and Serra are 1-1, how come no one is clamouring for a rubber match?? Because they know Serra could never reduplicate that performance.
Take it for what it is. It was Serra training to take GSP's head off. It was GSP thinking Serra was no match. It was the vet landing a punch and knocking GSP down. It was what he intended to do. Just because a less striker loses. Or lesser fighter loses. Doesn't mean it was luck. Serra was the better fighter that night. He found GSP's chin and GSP let him do so. Serra won the fight like he trained for months to accomplish.
I want to separate this argument a little from the Serra fight, because I agree with you, that Serra might have come in with a decent gameplan (body shots setting up a headshot). But he wasn't unlucky simply because he intended a punch, he deserved to win BECAUSE he trained, BECAUSE he had a great a gameplan, not simply because he though to do something at the final moment. The problem is youre taking the final cause without the causes of everything before it. But really thats a very superficial view of reality because many times the final cause is there without the all the work behind it (a lucky punch). Nearly all knockouts require intention, but not all intended knockouts are free from luck.
Don't worry, I know we wont get anywhere with this.