I don't think Gus will finish Shogun. Shogun took some solid shots from Hendo and didn't go out and Gus didn't look like a world beater vs Thiago. He actually seemed to gas himself in that fight. I think Shogun has the chin to survive, I still think Gus wins but I don't see him getting a finish.
Dan would have finished Shogun in the third if he had any gas left at all, but Dan was running low by the middle of the first and still laid that beating on him. I don't think Gus will KO him cold, but I think he'll put a JBJ style finish on him, just swarm him with too much.