I don't know how people think it will even be close. Shogun had problems standing with Vera and got hurt and ended up trying to take him down for most of the fight until Vera collapsed mentally and tried to fix his mouth piece right in front of shogun. I expect Gus to finish him late second third after shogun gasses. All though it has always been the third fight back that shogun started to look good again so who knows.
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He is very inconsistent, too much for my liking, outside of the Liddell fight, the two Machida fights and the second Forrest fight he's been very lackluster in the UFC when it comes to coming in shape, the Hendo fight was great to watch but Shogun technically is galaxies better than Dan and Dan handled him until he gassed. He's got a knack though for looking awful and some how winning the war of attrition like he did against Hendo and Vera.
I think he's tough enough to last the full fifteen but I think this is the end of him as a top five guy and if Gus impresses I fully expect to see a bunch of Jones/Gus threads pop up.