Can't really pick. Gustaf is very good but has never beat anyone like SHogun, even a crumbling Shogun. He could come up and destroy him. But if the Shogun vs. Forrest 2 or Machida 2 comes out he is better than Gustaf right now.
I think Shogun still has Pride. Wins this on heart and aggression that Gustaf won't handle.
Shogun Rd 2 KO.
I'm not completely sure but I don't think Gustafson is ready to get hit hard. The Vera fight was a war because among other things, Shogun started to gas and because Vera is a battle-tested veteran who has experience in furious battles. We'll see what Gustafson is able to handle, hopefully he won't back down because the division needs him to be the real deal if anyone is going to challenge Jones beyond Machida or possibly Mr. Wonderful.
Gustaf will play it cautiously and possibly win on points, unless Shogun can control the fight on the ground. Shogun needs to show this guy just how hard he can hit though and keep Gustaf guessing.