Johny Hendricks has one lost in 5 years, GSP has 2 losses in 10 years. The difference is Hendricks loss was a split decision while GSP was submitted in one occasion and KTFO in the other. You may want to add this to that MMAth formula.
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And GSP nearly retired Koscheck, whereas Hendricks barely squeaked by him. And this was very recently.
Not sure how MMA math will help Hendricks defend the take-down or figure out GSP's angle, or how it would help GSP's chin absorb Hendrick's hook.