Shogun could only be so lucky. This would be the absolute worst strategy possible for Gus.
I predict he will try to 'Condit' Shogun to a decision. Whether or not he will be able to avoid the one shot kill for 15 minutes is another question entirely.
Gus doesn't 'Condit' people he does the 'Cruz' on them except he's a naturally bigger guy so he has enough power to drop them and put them out of their misery, where people just have to endure 25 minutes of embarrasment against the King.
Don't know if he can beat Jones but I think he puts on a show against Shogun.