How much of a chance do you give him vs. Gustaf?
I agree chins fade. But Hendo has been rocked plenty and is 41 and his is not fading overall. Tough to say if Shogun's will fade until it happens. He is defiantly slower in defense and his exchanges so he gets hit clean more often these days.
I think if Gustaf wins it won't be by finish in a 3 round fight.
I don't like his chances, I think the guy that fought Machida twice is gone and Shogun looked exceptional in those fights, his surgeries have ruined his quickness and he looked winded after a round of fighting against a guy he should have destroyed, I'd say he's got a 30 percent chance of winning because Shogun can still bang and throws heavy leather but I wouldn't count on seeing the 'Healthy' Shogun ever again. Gus would be wise to use the oblique kick that pisses many off because he's got long legs like Jones does and he can keep him at bay with those.
And if he keeps him at bay, Shogun can't hit him.