I'd pick Gustaf over Machida. It'll be very competitive, but for all of Machida's technical ability, he doesn't deal with power too well. And Gus will land.
It'll stay standing, they'll both have good moments, but Gus' strikes will be more effective. I expected him to outpoint Shogun but I did not expect him to take the shots that he did... he is a very worthy replacement for Rua because like him, he's not just a great fighter but a very tough and powerful man.
I think Gustaf knocks Lyoto out.