Many of the exchanges in this fight were take some to give some, Shogun had success because he of his hard head and fearlessness. I think Machida will try to kick Gus a lot but when he gets close to punch, I can't see him taking too many counters. Which Gustaf WILL land.
The big question is, what does Gus do if he can't land? Remember the Shogun that he fought last night isn't the same guy that beat Machida. Shogun nowadays is just content to brawl and make it a war and his lack of a jab and leg kicks have made that crystal clear, and Thiago Silva...well, we already saw what Lyoto did to him.
I hate to sound like a homer but that Machida that fought Bader was that guy that made Silva look helpless and the guy that knocked out Rashad and he's by far the best guy that Gus would have fought and we already know Machida can get in and get out on long strikers.
The real question is if this fight happens, what does Gus do if he has a problem finding Machida, does he get desperate and rush him? If so, he's asking to be served up a silver platter.