I hate to bet against Hendo, he's been amazing lately. BUT Machida will approach this fight with Hendo's last few bouts in mind, and he has the tools to avoid Hendo's kill shot while being busy offensively.
Lyoto won't run from Dan like he did Rampage, look at the Bader fight. Very different Machida there and no, Bader is not top 5 material, but the adjustments in Lyoto's game were obvious. He kept range but maintained offense with rangy strikes, breaking Ryan down before committing to punches.
Hendo is more than a step above Bader, but the dangers are similar.
I don't take much from the Bader fight because Bader offered nothing. At least Rampage still had some "fear" of good hands. Bader has some power but he doesn't have good hands. He stood in front of Bader and found a KO because he didn't respect any of Bader's skills or weapons. He WILL respect Hendo's right hand. People can say it is slow and what not, but it lands. Bader's hands, either one is in no way shape or form comparable to Hendo's H-bomb.
He's not going to KO Hendo in 3 rounds. I'll make any sort of wager anyone wants on that fact. If he stands in the pocket he is getting drilled with that H-Bomb.