He is only overrated when people put him in the top 3. But most don't. So I don't think he is overrated. He is firmly in my top 10.
He should have a 7 fight win streak in the UFC right now. I don't care who you face, that is impressive. His wrestling needs work, but the guy is only 28 and has been riddled with injury. He is just coming into his own right now.
I think Belcher will tag Okami and force Okami to grapple. Okami will probably be able to take him down. Should be a close fight, but I'll go with Belcher.