Not saying Eddie would lose, but if his chances of winning are 90% in Bellator, and 60% in the UFC...stay in the small leagues and keep racking up a name for yourself and get a better deal, **** it.
I don't know how you see him, but in my books Eddie is already a big name. He's put his time in, and can boast an impressive record because of that. Part of my issue with your statement stems from the claim that he only has a 60% chance of winning in the UFC. I will agree with you that the lightweight division right now is a scary place for anyone to be, however I believe Eddie could hang around with the top guys in the division.