He won't put him away with one hand, but he also won't lose to him - that's damn sure
I imagine this will look a lot like the Rashad fight, lots of shooting from the challenger and defending the shots for the champion. This time around I see him stopping it somewhere in the third or fourth though.
I still think Sonnen is out of his league here (Skilled as he is) Jones is an absolute monster. Jones will keep the distance standing and be very hard for Sonnen to take down.
The second round of the second Silva fight Sonnen had trouble getting Silva down, I think Jones will be a lot harder to take down since he's a better wrestler, a bigger man and will be prepared for it.