Matt Brown is about as average as average gets. He is a good fighter but he is not great at anything. I'm not saying he can't beat Hardy because he certainly can, but I don't see why it's surprising that people are picking against him.
I mean Brown loses almost as often as he wins. He is just a middle of the pack guy.
I think Hardy is below average at everything except power. Brown is a better wrestler, has better submissions, better technical striker, hand speed is pretty close. He is a smarter fighter, he has more ways to win the fight.
I don't see it, I think Dan is in trouble no matter where the fight goes.