You have to factor into that fight that Maia wasn't training his ground game/grappling at the time. He was training almost exclusively striking. This Maia has gone back to what brought him to the game and shows a marked in improvement. Fitch's sub defense IMO is overrated-he was in bad positions with Eric, Diego almost got him with a guillotine in there fight.
Edit: I really need to see Penn/Fitch see if John was in any bad spots in that fight.
He escaped arguably the most compromised position one could possibly be in. BJ had his back and had his arm trapped with his leg... Jon escaped.
The more I think about the more confident I am that Jon will win. He'll get top position and maul Maia for 15 minutes.