Bispings losses have come against guys with big power or really good wrestling. Belcher has neither of those. He is a solid striker, but he doesnt really have the one punch, end your night kind of ability. He is best when he gets in a position to overwhelm his opponents with volume punches and kicks, that will be incredibly hard to do against Bisping. I see the count taking a pretty clear cut UD.
You are right that Mike's loses have come against men better then Belcher. But Belcher is better then most of the guys Bisping has beaten. He is more well rounded then Stann since he has the ability to sub Mike if it goes to the ground. I think it will be competitive but I think Mike is probably just alittle too good for him in the end. So ultimately I agree Bisping via UD. But I don't think it's easy.