Originally Posted by ProdigyPenn
A Superfight indeed. But I dont understand why Edgar is such a big underdog.
Totally agree here. Don't get me wrong, Aldo is rightfully favored here. But IMHO, Frankie should be getting closer to 2.25-2.40 as opposed to the nearly 2.90 he's getting at Pinnacle, for example. That's too juicy for me pass up.
Aldo is without question the most dangerous fighter Frankie's faced, but he matches up well Jose. Jose's two biggest weaknesses are his wrestling and his cardio. Frankie's two biggest strengths are his wrestling and his cardio. Frankie's also very fast (less so in comparison at 145), has tremendous footwork, and excellent boxing. He's also great at sticking to a gameplan. If you were to draw up Aldo's worst match-up, it would be Frankie Edgar.
Another factor working against Aldo, is the fact that he's been injured and hasn't fought in over a year. Anyone that's followed my posts, knows I'm a huge believer in cage rust. And when you're a fighter with a questionable gas tank to begin with, and you're facing a fighter that seemingly never tires (even after getting rocked), and sets an incredible pace, that's a major concern. On the other hand, even though Frankie is a natural 45er, the fact is, he's never made the cut. Being a wrestler by trade helps, but that still needs to be considered, especially when it comes to recovering after any major blows. Aldo will still be the bigger fighter, but Frankie's hung with Gray and Bendo so that's a non-factor to me.
Aldo's got the potential to finish Frankie (duh). But if this fight goes past the second round- which I fully expect- I can't see Frankie not taking this one. I worry about the cut for him, but with Aldo's layoff, I think it's a wash. I think Frankie will show enough movement skills to avoid an Aldo finish (although I can see him getting hurt). I think Edgar will wear him out with his frenetic pace, and grind out an almost Guida-esque decision. The main thing that concerns me is Frankie's chin and his ability to recover, after such a weight cut. In the end, too much value on Edgar here. I'll be taking him for the upset, with some slight hesitation.