Speed will kill in this fight. Yeah, Hendo cracked Fedor and Shogun, the H-Bomb is unavoidable blah blah... those two brawled with Hendo for whatever reasons, when they didn't need to at all.
Machida has a very different approach and has the discipline to maintain a strategy. He won't feel the need to try and beat Hendo at his own game, like Rua did. He'll use distance and kicks, make Hendo punch thin air and wear him down. Late submission or UD for Lyoto.