If Cruz comes back fully healthy, he should beat Barao without much difficulty. I think he has the better over all striking game and won't have much trouble neutralising Barao's BJJ game with his wrestling.
Then again I did think Mcdonald was going to get the KO. I still think Mcdonald has the much more potential out of the two fighters, regardless of last nights outcome. Just gotta patch up some of those grappling holes and mix up his game a little more, he'll get the KO next time.