The question is how timid will Lyoto be? Remember the Rampage fight, tonight could look a lot like that.
Dan is great at controlling the octagon, cutting off angles and setting up his H bomb. If he pins Machida against the cage, grinds him and dirty boxes... he can really set the tone and wear him out. Dan's greco and scrambling skills should not be overlooked as well.
This is a very close fight, but me thinks Hendo can finish via T/KO if he lands early in the first/second round(s).
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