People massively underrate Hendo. He is an animal in the first two rounds. His standup might not look great but he has great range awareness, great timing and great accuracy with his right hand.
This will be a close fight and very similar to the Machida-Rampage fight. The dragon is a great fighter, but he has never ran through guys like Hendo (true ko power and iron chins); I don't see him running through Hendo. Just rewatch the last Shogun and Machida fight and the Jones-Machida fight; Machida is there to hit when he darts in with this patented one-two and Hendo is the type of guy that has the chin, timing and power to eventually catch him coming in.