I'm going to be really controversial and say that should this fight go the distance, Diaz may very well take it. You're all assuming that in a long distance fight, GSP will probably be controlling everything and making Diaz lie down most of the time... Diaz' tenacity, conditioning and skill set makes me question this.
On the feet Diaz will be marching forward throwing a high amount of strikes as usual. Either man can land a heavy counter, but Diaz is a much busier and more aggressive striker.
On the ground when GSP is on top, Nick will be constantly looking for submissions and a chance to sweep his way back up. IF GSP can consistently nullify these attempts, he will HAVE to do more offensively than he normally does or Diaz will make him look lazy, possible stand up depending on the ref.
If Diaz winds up on top, that's a situation we can't really visualize. We rarely see GSP in this position, Diaz does have a fantastic submission game, Nick will undoubtedly be scoring points from here at the very least.
Diaz outscoring GSP is very much a possibility to me.
Condit pretty much showed that Diaz being some unstoppable machine in the feet was a myth and GSP works with the finest jujitsu guys out there.
This will look like Bendo/Nate.
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