Both guys are pretty inconsistent. Ellenberger has issues with cardio and his jiu jitsu while Marquardt may have one of the worst mental games and fight IQ's in the sport. Jake has decent takedows and Marquardt has terrible defensive wrestling. If Jake fights conservatively, he should be able to control Marquardt throughout the fight.
Ellenberger via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
I can see this looking a bit like Florian/Maynard
Faber - Franklin - Velasquez - Hunt - Machida - Condit
Credit to M.C. for the sig!