Of course he can beat Nog, anyone can beat anyone and he's beaten him before. The first fight is irrelevant because it was under a different rule set a long time ago, and they've both changed a lot.
Shogun may not be what he has been, but he's achieved a LOT more than Nog has since their first fight. A rusty Shogun is better than all of Nog's UFC opponents so far.
A rusty Shogun is not better than Rashad, Davis or Bader.
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