I think Shogun's doing the smart thing, learning to focus on his hands. He's had some incredibly bad luck with his injuries and I'm amazed the guy can still throw a solid kick given the abuse his knees have taken over the years. Hopefully he comes in with better conditioning for his fight with Nogueira.
Shogun is one of those fighters that I could see beating everyone in the top ten but Jones, but also losing to everyone in the top ten just as easily. I think he has trouble with Jones, Gustafsson (who already soundly beat him), Teixeira, and Machida. I think he wins a rematch with Henderson and beats Rashad, Bader, Nogueira, but I can also see him losing to these guys as well.