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Johnny Hendricks Will KO GSP

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#1 ·
Here is my full analysis of the upcoming Hendricks-GSP title fight and how I believe it will go down:

In approaching this fight, you have to consider GSP's gameplan in every title defense. Like Bill Belicheck in the NFL, GSP is a highly cerebral strategist whose only concern is winning, and he does this by taking away his opponent's biggest strength while attacking his biggest weakness. This sounds obvious enough, but you'd be surprised how often fighters and athletes compete with awful gameplans and low fight IQ.

In recent history, GSP has adopted this gameplan effectively because he is strong in all facets of MMA: He is a black belt karate striker with extensive boxing training from Freddie Roach, he has a black belt in BJJ, and he is arguably the best wrestler in MMA. So, if his opponent's strength is wrestling then he will take that away by using his great wrestling to keep the fight standing and exposing his opponent's weakness on the feet. We saw this strategy against Jake Shields, when GSP took away Shields's strength as a grappler by standing and striking Shields against his weakness. Conversely, against a fighter whose strength is striking and weakness is wrestling, GSP will take away the strength and attack the weakness simultaneously by taking the opponent down in every round and keeping the fight on the mat. We saw this strategy employed against Dan Hardy and Thiago Alves.

GSP has had success in every defense because he is strong in every aspect of MMA, whereas his opponents have typically been EITHER strong grapplers OR strong strikers. Thus, he has been able to rinse and repeat his gameplans with relative ease and predictability. Because GSP has monstrous MMA wrestling, he's been able to even take down other wrestlers like Josh Koscheck.

With Hendricks, though, GSP will face the best MMA and pure wrestler he has ever faced. Hendricks was an incredible undefeated champion in college who was even better than Koscheck, and as we saw against Condit yesterday he can take people down pretty easily when he feels like it. Also, I've never seen anybody take him down and I can't imagine anybody doing it, including GSP. Because of this incredible wrestling, Hendricks will be able to keep the fight standing against GSP.

Thus, the battle will come down to a striking match between Hendricks and GSP. While GSP has better technical striking, Hendricks undoubtedly has more power in his fists. Showing the ability to KO anybody, Hendricks has the ability to KO GSP, who has an average chin since he has been rocked by Carlos Condit and even finished by little Matt Serra.

The final questions are: Can Hendricks actually land his bombs, and does he have the stamina to last 5 rounds? To the first question, I think he can land his power lefts against GSP by pressuring him. GSP is not a counter-striker like Anderson Silva, and he doesnt respond to pressure well. Normally, GSP goes in for a double-leg takedown when pressured, but this is not an option against a wrestling stalwart like Hendricks. So, Hendricks can back GSP up, defend his takedown attempts, and land his power left with pressure. While he doesnt have the stamina for five rounds, I don't think it will matter because Hendricks will rock and finish GSP within the first 3.

The only other way I can see this fight developing is for GSP to be well prepared for Hendricks's left hand and outpoint him on the feet for a five round decision via superior endurance and technique. But, ultimately I see HEndricks taking the belt with a KO in the first 3 rounds. What do you all think?
 
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#3 ·
Hendricks is a legitimate threat to GSP's title.

It boils down to how good his takedown defense is. It he can keep it standing, the way he darts in to land his bombs will have GSP in all kinds of shit.

Then again GSP can take everybody down, I don't think Hendricks will be an exception. Everybody said Diaz would destroy GSP standing but the fight was standing for 16 of 25 minutes and Diaz couldn't do anything with it.

It will be a good fight, I'm looking forward to it :thumb03:
 
#4 ·
Of course Hendricks is a threat. But to act as though GSP won't - without question - be able to control Hendricks because of Johny's wrestling credentials is jumping the gun. Rick Story was able to win a UD against Hendricks by doing precisely that - controlling him. To think it impossible that GSP, a larger and much more talented WW, could do the same is just silly. I've been told so many times now that GSP will be in danger on the feet or on the ground because of ______'s ability that the words have lost all meaning.

Hendricks can be controlled. And as we saw last night, Hendricks can be broken when things don't go his way. There's a reason he dropped the third, and it's because Carlos turned up the pressure and started winning the fight. Hendricks wilted.

All that to say that of course Hendricks can catch GSP. But I'll hardly be shocked if GSP is able to take Johny down and make him quit from underneath. If people honestly believe that Diaz vs. GSP was boring, then I suggest not ordering this fight, because GSP isn't dumb enough to attempt anything other than out-grappling Hendricks. And I can't say that I'll blame him.
 
#5 ·
GSP puts on another technical striking clinic, though there's always a chance Hendricks could catch him at some point. Condit got nailed a bunch of times last night because he either backed straight up or circled into the left hand instead of away from it. GSP is very unlikely to make that mistake, he has the footwork, speed, and reach to stay out of the way and pick Hendricks apart from the outside all night long. Add to that is ring awareness, watch any of his recent fights and notice how he circles back to the center of the cage as soon as his feet get behind the black line. This makes it a lot harder for Hendricks to cut off the cage and put GSP in a position where he can be hit.

Personally I think GSP will Randy Couture him. By that I mean he'll use his striking to setup the clinch and wear out Hendricks that way. Gas him out, wear him down, and frustrate him into making mistakes which can be exploited.
 
#6 ·
GSP has a 6" reach advantage which means he'll likely use dynamic striking to keep Hendricks out of range and then reactive double when Hendricks tries to close the distance.

Hendricks at least will have 5 rounds to land that shot to KO GSP; in that time he'll get tired and GSP will work to take the power out of his punches.

This fight will just like every other GSP fight in the past five years with the same result.
 
#8 ·
To me this outcome was unthinkable and virtually impossible 6 months ago, now i actually think it is the most likely outcome.

:confused:

Comparing their wrestling last night i actually see Hendricks as the more explosive and dynamic wrestler of the two, I think Hendricks will be able to stuff GSP's attempts, GSP's best chance to win this fight might be to employ his Koschek tactics.. but judging by GSP's post fight face i really doubt he's going to be elusive enough over 5 rounds to avoid being hurt by Hendricks.

This is madness, but i predict Hendricks by KO/TKO in the championship rounds.
 
#11 ·
GSP has a 6" reach advantage which means he'll likely use dynamic striking to keep Hendricks out of range and then reactive double when Hendricks tries to close the distance.

Hendricks at least will have 5 rounds to land that shot to KO GSP; in that time he'll get tired and GSP will work to take the power out of his punches.

This fight will just like every other GSP fight in the past five years with the same result.

GSP fights the smart fight... and having a greater reach == stay on the outside and wait for stoopid mistakes made by your opponent.

When Hendricks attempt to close the distance with his bombs, he will get dropped on his back and GSP will turn his face to mush... GSP aint going to try anything snazzy, like trying for a sub or something cause Hendricks aint gonna let him...
He will prolly stay in half/full guard, use his extra long reach to drop elbows or just G&P... end round, rinse, repeat

YET.. even tho GSP is THIS predicable, he still is the champ, go figure
 
#10 ·
GSP looks a little less dynamic and more straight line in his last few fights Shields included.

Hendricks biggest weapon is his ability to really lung forward and cover big ground with power punches. Diaz hit GSP with his slow footwork, albeit with a long reach. Hendricks managed to clip Condit who seems more dynamic on his feet than GSP does these days.

Is GSP's wrestling good enough to make Hendricks hesitant to rush in? I'm really excited for this matchup, GSP has been a master of the safest gameplan this is definitely a tough puzzle to crack. The closest match might be Koscheck but he doesn't cover forward ground nearly as quickly as Hendricks.
 
#12 ·
People don't seem to realize that when Hendricks inevitably goes ape wild looking for his big flurry, he'll leave himself open for an easy takedown. You can't rush in looking for that big shot and work defensive wrestling/TDD at the same time. GSP's takedowns are going to have Hendricks second guessing himself about going for that big power shot... you get wild, you get taken down.

That doesn't mean GSP can't be caught. And it doesn't mean that Hendricks won't come in and try to outwrestle GSP. But it's fairly obvious that if he goes for those big power exchanges, he opens himself up for a takedown - which GSP is more than good enough to capitalize on. I do love that because Nick was able to stuff some half hearted takedown attempts, GSP's wrestling, his once most heralded tool, is now 'non existent'.

Either way, Hendricks is easily GSP's toughest challenge in years.
 
#13 ·
I don't think Hendricks will knock him out, but if the GSP that fought yesterday is just like the one who will fight Hendricks, then his title is in as much jeopardy as I think it's ever been in. Diaz stuffed too many takedown attempts, and Hendricks will be MUCH harder to take down. GSP better beef his cardio up for this fight, he needs that advantage.
 
#15 ·
Well seeing as Hendricks has been outwrestled twice in mma (Kos and Story) by far worse wrestlers than GSP I don't see how he's just going to keep it standing. GSP has taken down everyone he has ever tried to no matter their credentials, experience, or natural ability. He is also damn near impossible to takedown and keep down.

From what I saw last night Hendricks loses badly unless GSP just comes in and fights the way he did in round 3 against Diaz.
 
#17 ·
would be interesting to see hendricks try to charge in and get the takedown and combine that with punches on the break when GSP backs away.

GSP had some trouble taking/keeping KOS down the second time they fought, but at least KOS had the experience of fighting him before and must have really focused on that one area for the second fight.
 
#20 ·
Truth!

I'll go one further and say that GSP was easily able to outwrestle Koscheck, whereas Hendricks struggled and nearly lost a decision. It might be MMA math, but it's certainly worth addressing. GSP will definitely have to worry about Hendricks clipping him, but you can bet your sweet bippy that Hendricks will have to worry about being taken down and controlled by GSP.
 
#23 ·
...Damn everybody knew. Even Johny said Condit was gonna circle away from his big left and he still landed it. I knew Johny's wrestling/takedowns would be the difference. Johny was packing serious heat...missed wide but when he connected flush Condit took it.
>>.Flat out---Johny Hendricks is on a steamroll right to GSP's doorstep. Rory has to be in this mix. He called out Condit. Ellenberger spoke volumes faceplanting Nate. Nick got inside of GSP's head and was getting lit up by Nick in the 3rd. Johny hasn't done a 5 rounder yet. He looked good last night. I believe Hendricks is the biggest threat to GSP by far....Here's a top notch wrestler that can put u to sleep in a blink like nobody else in the division...
 
#31 ·
He's a threat as long as the fight is standing, that left hand of his is no joke. I'm pretty sure GSP will take him down without much trouble tho. He's taken down accomplished wrestlers before. I'm not that impressed with Hendricks wrestling thb. Not to say that it's by any means bad but he hasn't shown anything to prove that its on another level either. I dont think his mma-wrestling is any better than Kos, Hughes, Sherk, Fitch or any of the other wrestlers that GSP beat already.

Also his topgame looked pretty bad & I can just imagine that his bottomgame is pretty horrible, as strong wrestlers seldom develope a good guard.

My prediction is GSP will be a bit scared of Johnnys power, he won't take much risk standing with him, but he might jab him around a bit. Then he gets one takedown per round and keeps Hendricks down pretty easy.
 
#32 ·
The thing that keeps surprising me about Hendricks, is his quickness and fleet of foot. He is of course the archetypal strong wrestler who throws bombs, but there is more to him than that. He has a natural smoothness and creativity about some of the combos he throws, and his hands and footwork are pretty damn fast when he isn't just throwing his uber bomb.

GSP could totally succeed with reactive takedowns off of bum rushes at him, but I also think Hendrick's quickness could really surprise him, and I just get the sense that GSP will not enjoy striking with Hendricks at all.
 
#33 ·
It's kinda funny, going all the way back to the BJ Penn rematch we had people saying that GSP would get tooled. It was claimed that BJ would stuff the takedowns and use his superior striking to beat up GSP in the standup game. Instead, he got out struck, taken down, beaten up, and finished.

Then because Thiago Alves managed to keep the fight standing against Koscheck, he was going to do the same to GSP and knock him with his superior striking. Instead, he got taken down like everyone else, beaten up, then knocked down in the standup game and beaten up some more.

Then we get to Jake Shields, who because he's taken everyone down and blanketed or sub'd them on the ground, was supposed to do the same to GSP. I do recall a thread entitled, and I quote, "Shields will take down GSP and toy with him on the ground". Shields didn't get a single takedown, and got knocked down twice by GSP.

And just weeks ago we had threads where people claimed that Nick Diaz would work the shit out of GSP if the fight went to the ground, and that GSP would be afraid to take him down and get beaten up by Diaz' superior boxing. How'd that one work out? Beaten in striking and completely shut down on the ground.

There's no question that Hendricks is one hell of a dangerous opponent, he's got deadly power and the timing to land his money punch with a disturbing amount of success. But like the rest of GSP's opponents, I wouldn't be surprised if GSP and his coaches figure out a way to shut him down and take him apart. They're smart and they know how to win. You might not like the way they do it, but you can't deny how good they are at it.
 
#34 ·
Quoted for mother ******* truth! So easy how people forget.

The "GSP is going to lose" chants are always prevalent... until he wins. Then the talk becomes how boring he is and points to how the NEXT guy is going to be the one to beat him.

He's not invincible... far from it. It's just too funny to watch the conversations on here change.
 
#35 ·
Hendricks is likely the most power he has ever faced, but the way he generates power (from the waste, hands down) will leave him open and somewhat predictable.

GSP, cautious as he is, should be able to outwork him standing and stuff the takedowns. I'm pretty sure when/if it gets the championship rounds Hendricks will be gassed from fruitlessly throwing his weight around.

To be sure, Georges didn't look great last fight, and it seems like he's getting tired of the fight game, and maybe starting to deteriorate.
 
#37 ·
GSP can take anyone down even Hendricks

Hendricks Can KO anyone even GSP

Its a fight I'd like to see because of the the possibility of finally seeing someone new as champion. i'm sick to death of GSPs point whoring strategy. Unfortunately I don't think Hendricks will land that punch before he gets put on his back.
 
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