Mixed Martial Arts Forum banner

Machida will be LHW Champ by the end of 2013

6K views 64 replies 31 participants last post by  OU 
#1 ·
From another forum.

Yes these involve plenty of speculation, as they should. But I will just share the following goodies of my logic, which I think are mutually supporting , rather than points that can be fully isolated from each other.

1. Machida is hungry. If he can find a fight to stay active I think he will stay hungry.
He is the kind of person who has mental discipline and long term planning, and he also knows this may be his last real shot. He has moved to the usa for this reason. As for Jones it is hard for any champ to stay hungry forever. Machida seems less afraid of him than he was after losing to Shogun. Jones doesn't lack maturity but doesn't have it in spades cuz he hasn't lost. Maturity plus hunger = dangerous.

2. Machida's glaring mma deficiency, the dropping of his hand, was crucial in losing him the fight against Jones. I believe he has addressed this problem.

3. Machida was abnormally heavy/big for the Jones fight. This was a big mistake, as a. he already has knockout power against anybody in the ufc if he times the shot right. b. his whole style depends on mobility and speed. c. Given machida's style, and Jones' reach advantage, it is hard to see how giving up speed for being a bit stronger would help against Jones. I believe Machida knows this now, and he will keep fighting at a leaner size.

4. Machida was overly aggressive against Jones. His blitzes were and are the right way to win, but need to be worked into a larger game plan of varied paces and enough of his defensive bread and butter. I think Machida knows this now.

5. Machida is very hard to deal with when he is doing what he does. Having been hit by Jones strikes due to the aforementioned former bad habit of letting his guard down, he sealed his fate. Once he was on his feet again, he stopped doing what he does. Machida stopped moving. He just stood there looking bewildered. If he keeps his guard up and works on his striking, that won't happen and he wont stop moving, especially coming in lighter.

6. Both fighters need to work on their striking, and the key to the fight lies there. Bones is not going to manhandle Machida and keep him down unless he gets the better of him again standing up. Both men know that, but Machida has a far better striking base to build upon than Jones does. He has also really improved his camp situation and his wrestling partners since the Jones fight by moving to the usa.

7. It is fallacy to consider Machida's not so exciting performance against Henderson as evidence that he has got nothing for Jones, or that he doesn't look hungry. He knows full well where his legacy stands right now and all he cared about was getting a guaranteed W so he could get the title shot. His calculated though boring approach in the hendo fight was not evidence of his stagnation, but of his seriousness. Getting the belt > the guy who also beat Hendo in an exciting fight.

8. A lighter Machida with hands up will be hard for Jones to take down. Machida's wrestling strength is in the clinch (tossed hendo from there). Jones' clinch is better by wrestling and offensive standards but because of how Machidas wrestling clinch mixes with his close range counters and footwork, his defense from clinch is trouble for anyone. And so its no surprise Jones took him down with a great double.

Machida is not a guy that is easy to double due to the distance you have to cover, you have to hit him solidly or break his rhythm to be able to do it, which Jones awesomely did. Current Machida will not fall prey to the above. Also, Jones still dove a huge distance for that shot, with the cage closing the deal. This helps to show that even with his power and length Jones could get in trouble diving against a mobile, unrocked, lighter Machida.

9. Machida's unpredictability/movement and ground defense looked better in the Hendo fight.
 
See less See more
#4 ·
I disagree and there really is no point of me taking time to say why with a case like this, now had you said gustafsson, texiera or cormier then we could have a real discussion.
 
#7 ·
Honestly, I think Machidas better off dropping down to mw. Jones is a young champ who's probably going to be around for many years to come. Machida also has more years left in his career than Anderson, so once AS retires, he will be a force to reckon with and has an absolute real shot at taking the MW title. Plus, I'm DYING to see a match-up between him and Cung Le.

I think Gustoffson, if he wins, is a much bigger threat to Jones than Machida is at this point anyways...
 
#14 ·
...We all saw Jones for the first time face adversity in the Octagon against Machida when they fought. Bones stayed so amazingly composed. Machida has a decent ground game & wrestling but again, Jon cracked Machida coming in and dropped him. Bones get's top position...yer done. his leverage is too much to stop. Jon landed that one elbow that changed everything. Sliced Machida wide open. Honestly, I really believe Jones is almost unstoppable when he's in top position. If Machida starts to catch him again like in the first fight, like Rogan says " It's like man against boy"...
 
#23 ·
AGreed. I have friends that say "well MAchida gave him the best fight". Perhaps they are right. But people get a little too carried away with the fact that Machida landed a punch. If you are that excited over that, odds are he has pretty little chance to actually win the fight.

Machida DID SO WELL in the 1st. Yet I think 2 out of 3 judges gave it to Jones.
 
#25 ·
I think even Jones commented on that saying "he landed one punch.." when people brought up that Machida had him "in trouble", but what are you going to do? People are going to hold onto things to make his fights seem more competitive than they are. You can't blame a Machida fan for wanting to believe in him. Landing one good punch doesn't always mean that much though. I can't count how many times Rogan has said "HE ROCKED HIM THERE! HE'S IN TROUBLE!" when the opponent being "rocked" didn't seem very fazed at all.
 
#43 ·
I like Machida, but if he comes in the way he did against Rampage or Dan Henderson, Jones will eat him alive.
You'll have to explain what you mean here. Other than a slip on the mat Machida won every minute of that and on any knowledgable scorecard won all three rounds.


Sent from Verticalsports.com Free App
 
#50 ·
Machida should turn the script and attack. It'll confuse em. It's always easier to stalk, but when you're put on the defensive you're reactive. Everybody knows what the LHW holder does. He runs backwards with his hands and arms held out. Therefore I would like to see a flying armbar or see his (Machida) sumo clinch and trip takedown while on the offense. We've never seen the LHW title holder on the ground yet.

Machida won't be able to play defensive forever. We've learned this in the second round. Stretch Armstrong covers too much ground.

Machida by KO 2nd round.
 
#52 ·
Machida spent damn near 11-12 minutes total backing away from Dan Henderson. What frustrated the hell out of me was that Dan Henderson left so many openings that Machida could have countered easily. Instead he chose to back away. He took Henderson down easily from the clinch, it was a pretty neat trip and his GnP looked solid at the end of the first round. I just don't understand why he chose to spend the majority of the contest backing away and neglecting to take clear opportunities. He damn near lost that fight because he spent so much time being inactive. Playing the points game is fine but you don't get points for not engaging in some way. Punches thrown should count over no punches thrown at all.

Machida won't be afforded the same luxury against Jones that he had against Henderson. Henderson is a legend and a great fighter but he relies essentially on his iron jaw and nuclear hands. Everything else about his game has stagnated or even regressed. Jones is the total package and he will probably neutralize Machida's speed and drag him to the mat before delivering some elbows from hell.
 
#53 ·
Machida still struggles against his defensive Karate DNA. It's crystal clear. He already addressed he would be more aggresive in the future as he aknowledged ppls criticism, but he still fights back paddling as avoid confrontation is his martial art main philosophy.
It's amazing, though, he got the belt and keeps himself at elite level with so much restrains.
 
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top