Jones will win. I think Sonnen MAY get 1 takedown early but after that its all Jones. In fact, I think it would be play out exactly like Silva/Sonnen 2 but with less time on the ground and a vicious beating standing by Jones. Jones wins via submission.
Does Sonnen actually deserve this opportunity at the LHW Title? No he does not. But can you really blame him for taking what was offered to him? No you cant. It is not his fault that the higher ups like Sonnen and gave him this. Blame the people that give Chael this. This match might be a waste of time, but at least Sonnen will go down fighting even though he admits that this is a much more worse match for him than the last.