I really want JJ to lose this fight, but sadly I don't think Chael is the man for the task.
One thing that really sticks out in the fight that no one else has done in the past:
Everyone (challenger) has veered from their gameplan. Chael is a one track mind at takedowns and ground control/smothering.
He will get JJ down, the question is.. will he survive an onslaught from Jones with those nasty elbows?
Jones is very tall and lanky for the LHW division, and is excellent in using his length and strength. Their is a reason why people start abandoning their gameplans when they are getting punched and kicked from halfway across the screen a la Dhalsim. We all know what Sonnen is going to do, but Jones faced opponents who had the same idea but couldnt do it. What can Chael do than say Rashad could not do? I can only see this ending badly for Sonnen. Once he realized he cant take Jon down and his only method of winning is out the window, he is going to panic and perhaps throw a spinning back fist again.