I'm back and forth as well. It's like Belcher is better then the guys Bisping usually beats but he isn't as good as the guy that Bisping usually loses to. But Belcher does have the ability to finish on the feet and on the ground. I'm not sure Mike has the ability to finish Belcher but he could outwork him.
That's how I feel, too.
Bisping decision, or Belcher finish (late)
I think it will come down to how effective Belcher is with his kicks. I'm rooting for Belcher, big-time. (I hate Bisping)
[Edit] As for being overrated, I think both guys are top 10, but not quite top 5. Nothing to be ashamed of!